About Pop Up Prospects
There are hundreds of prospects in minor league baseball. There are dozens of prospect rankings, too. There are player raters and scouting grades that pin a number on a players future tools. But I found myself asking - what is Coby Mayo’s current scouting grade? Is he living up to those expectations? How does he compare to players at the same level of minor league baseball? And how can I find the next Coby Mayo before my league, especially if we are all reading the same daily prospect updates? I decided to build it myself.
I’ve grown familiar with the 20-80 scouting grade scale, so all tools are ranked using that scale. I’m looking for players with above average performance, or 50 grades and up. The System probably won’t produce any 80 grades - there are too many adjustments (discussed below). Here are the TOOLS and statistics that are being used to evaluate each tool.
TOOLS:
- BAT - K%, BB%, K/BB, AVG, BABIP, LD%, FB%, and SwStr%
- PWR - ISO, LD%, HR/AB, FB%, HR/FB, 2B, and 3B
- GAP - 2B+3B/AB, ISO, LD%, FB% (I made this separate from PWR because we don’t always see big power translate to HR in the lower levels)
- RUN - SB%, SB per SBOpportunity, Spd, and SB
This statistical model - I call it the System, gives you the information you need to evaluate players to fit your dynasty baseball team. If you’re short on stolen bases, you can seek out prospects with 80 grade legs. If you’re like me, and you build your teams around big power bats, I’m looking for guys that can rack up 30 dingers in 162 games. The System adjusts for a few different factors embedded in statistics.
ADJUSTMENTS:
I'm making a couple adjustments to the data.
- Proximity to the big leagues - you will see AA and AAA players higher rankings because their probability of succeeding in the big leagues is much higher than a DSL or CPX player
- Age to level - I’d rather have a 21 year old at AA with a 100 wRC+ than a 26 year old at AAA with a 115 wRC+. The 21 year old simply has higher upside and he’s performing well against much older players.
- Park and league factors - we’ve all heard about the hitter friendly parks in the Pacific Coast League. Let’s filter through the data to find out who is really performing well.
- "Average" is not necessarily "average" - when the System is done ranking prospects according to their tool set, I want about 100 players to qualify for the "average" 50 tier. That mean's I'm setting the "median" player back around the 40 "below average" tier. I'm still going to talk about 50 being average, 60 being plus, 70 is double-plus, and 80 is elite, but keep it in the back of your mind that "average" may be slightly above average.
The System is another tool in your tool belt, to help you dominate your dynasty league. Use it in conjunction with future grades, MLB team context, your rankings. Save a spot on the end of your roster, for the next Pop Up Prospect.
POP UP LIST
If I weight the System TOT output by BAT and PWR, here are some names worth considering. I've compared the output from the System with the 2021 Fangraphs scouting grades, for reference.
Oswaldo Cabrera - above average (51) BAT tool and plus (63) PWR tool over 514 at bats in the upper minors at age 22. I’m picking up Oswaldo Cabrera in both my leagues. I don’t weight RUN heavily, but he also had a near-plus (58) grade on his RUN tool. This is notable because it might help him beat out infield grounders. He’s listed at 5’10 which gives me a little pause, but he’s a switch hitter. I’ll need to investigate whether he has good or bad splits, but I can hold him in my minors in the meantime.
Gabriel Arias - at age 21, and across 483 at bats in the upper minors, Arias had an above average (53) BAT paired with near-plus (58) PWR and plus (63) RUN tools. If he’s available, I’m adding him. He has a bit of a pedigree - he was part of a trade between the Padres and Guardians. Arias is 6’1.
Two other names that might be available to target via trade: Leody Taveras and Andres Gimenez. These guys are just 22 and they are already post-hype! They both scored identical grades: average (50) BAT, plus (60) PWR, and plus (60) RUN.
Luis Campusano - don’t sleep on Campusano. He also feels like a post-hype guy because his MLB debut was underwhelming - he started it off well, with a HR in his first game, but in early 2021 he struggled and was demoted - I think he was demoted to work on his defense, because it was pretty obvious that SD’s pitchers were frustrated with his performance behind the plate. He grades out as average (50) BAT, plus (60) PWR, and above average (55) RUN in 326 upper minors at bats, at age 22!
NEXT STEPS
Over the 2021-22 off-season I’ll publish results of the System from the 2021 season. I’ll discuss prospects I like in detail. In the 2022 season we will put the System to the test - every couple weeks I will mine player production for pop up prospects. We will sort through the noise to find the guys who made the adjustments necessary for a true break out. As the off-season progresses, here are my plans:
- General ongoing refinements to the System model
- Lower level hitter TOOLS analysis
- All pitchers, new pitcher TOOLS
- Back testing previous seasons
- Pop Up List updates from 2021